Someone profited handsomely after winning an unlikely short-term bet on Nicolás Maduro's fate. The win kicked off a round of intense scrutiny of prediction markets.

Learn to apply Bayes' theorem in financial forecasting for insightful, updated predictions. Enhance decision-making with ...

Editor’s note: Previous versions of the simulation were incorrectly calculating each team’s odds of reaching the conference finals and beyond. That error has been ...

The months after the release of the June 2020 World Economic Outlook (WEO) Update have offered a glimpse of how difficult rekindling economic activity will be while the pandemic surges. During May and ...