This article was published in Scientific American’s former blog network and reflects the views of the author, not necessarily those of Scientific American I’m not sure when I first heard of Bayes’ ...

Discover how credibility theory helps actuaries use historical data to estimate risks and set insurance premiums; learn how ...

Nate Silver, baseball statistician turned political analyst, gained a lot of attention during the 2012 United States elections when he successfully predicted the outcome of the presidential vote in ...

In science, progress is possible. In fact, if one believes in Bayes' theorem, scientific progress is inevitable as predictions are made and as beliefs are tested and refined. ~ Nate Silver If the ...

Introduction: Bayesian data mining methods have been used to evaluate drug safety signals from adverse event reporting systems and allow for evaluation of multiple endpoints that are not prespecified.

Bayes’s core contribution, which Chivers skillfully renders into cogent prose designed to educate the lay reader, is the notion that the likelihood of an event taking place in the future depends, in ...

We review Bayesian approaches to model testing in general and to the assessment of topological hypotheses in particular. We show that the standard way of setting up Bayes factor tests of the monophyly ...